WTPN21 PHNC 120100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 112.7W TO 15.4N 117.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 112.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 
112.8W, APPROXIMATELY 353NM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CLARION, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE,
WITH LARGE SWATHS OF FORMATIVE BANDING PRIMARILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE 
WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE 97E WILL TAKE
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130100Z.
//
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