ABPW10 PGTW 040630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040630Z-050630ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZSEP2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040621ZSEP2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04SEP26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 29.5N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF KADENA AB, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.6N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 370 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
PERSISTED IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES, WITH 
WEAKER BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER, REFLECTING AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DRIER AIR IS WEDGED ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, LIMITING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. A 040007Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED WINDS 
NEAR THE CORE, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED 
AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A ROBUST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT ON 97W, 
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICTING LIMITED 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE BROADENING 
OUT THE LLCC THEREAFTER. MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND THESE 
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON 97W LARGELY HAVING A BROAD WIND FIELD WHILE 
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 040630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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