ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310721ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010121ZSEP2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.6N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
310 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS 
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM IN DIAMETER, WITH ELEVATED WINDS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION COVERED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION IS 
LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS FROM TAIWAN TO THE 
MARIANA ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OFFSET BY A NARROW BAND OF DRY AIR SEPARATING 
THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CIRCULATION. TIGHTENING OF THE WIND 
FIELD IS NEEDED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 94W AS THE 
SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY. ENSEMBLE MODELS DO SHOW 
SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS; HOWEVER, IT IS SHORT-
LIVED AND ALSO DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS BEING QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE 
MOVING NORTH. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO-
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 310730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9N 117.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 19.5N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
138 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS 
DEPICT 17W FURTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH A 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
OF 17W AND TAKING A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 010130) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 21W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 34.9N 167.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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