WTPN22 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 17W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310730Z AUG 26//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 310730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 112.6E TO 23.1N 118.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 112.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.0N 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 17W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD 
AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020130Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 132.7E.
//
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