WTPN21 PHNC 312000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZAUG26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 107.8W TO 16.6N 111.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 106.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 12.0N 106.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.2W, APPROXIMATELY  
416 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 95E TRACKING 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 302000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
012000Z.//
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