ABPW10 PGTW 310600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZAUG2026-010600ZSEP2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2026// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301952ZAUG2026// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300721ZAUG2026// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 30AUG26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (BANG-LANG) WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 889 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (2) AT 30AUG26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 744 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 302100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 133.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 292347Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT REVEALED WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF 94W, SURROUNDED BY ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA INDICATES CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, AND A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ONLY A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS NEEDED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO CONSOLIDATE, AFTER WHICH TIME, THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN UP. 94W CURRENTLY LIES ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM TAIWAN TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL, NORTHWEST-TRACKING CIRCULATIONS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT MAY LEAD TO MORE DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SUBSEQUENT CIRCULATIONS, WHICH HAVE NOT YET FORMED. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RELATES TO THE REGION OF THE EAST CHINA SEA. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 300730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. A 310130Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ROBUST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PORTRAYING THE INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 07 NM NORTHWEST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT THE REMNANTS OF 17W HAVE EMERGED OVER WATER AS A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W SITS IN A POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 17W HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 17W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CHINESE COAST, WHERE IT MAY BRIEFLY REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WASHING OUT INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN