ABPW10 PGTW 310000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/310000ZAUG2026-310600ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30AUG26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (BANG-LANG) WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 889 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 30AUG26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 744 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 302100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 133.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI DAITO JIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 292347Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT REVEALED WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF 94W, SURROUNDED BY ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25KTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA INDICATES CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, AND A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ONLY A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS NEEDED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 
INDICATE THAT 94W WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO CONSOLIDATE, AFTER WHICH TIME, THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN UP. 94W CURRENTLY LIES ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM TAIWAN TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL, NORTHWEST-TRACKING CIRCULATIONS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT MAY LEAD TO MORE DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SUBSEQUENT CIRCULATIONS, WHICH HAVE NOT YET FORMED. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RELATES TO THE REGION OF THE EAST CHINA SEA. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT OBSCURING THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH SHORT, CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 301301 METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ROBUST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON STEADY TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK, WITH GFS PORTRAYING A MORE EASTWARD MOTION, WHILE ECENS DEPICTS A TURN NORTHWARD WITH LANDFALL QUICKLY FOLLOWING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 17W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.0N 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 64 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAIKOU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF 17W HAVE RE-EMERGED OVER WATER AS A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W SITS IN A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 17W HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 17W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CHINESE COAST -- WHERE IT MAY BRIEFLY REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WASHING OUT INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ALTERNATIVELY, 17W MAY DEVELOP AS A TROUGH WITH ELEVATED SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND REMAIN A TROUGH FOR THE DURATION OF IT’S SECOND LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW IN PARA. 1.B.(3).//
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