ABPW10 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302100Z-310600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30AUG26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (BANG-LANG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 34.1N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 889 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 30AUG26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 31.7N 166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 744 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. 
SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 302100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.6N 133.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI DAITO JIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 292347Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT REVEALED WEAK 
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF 94W, SURROUNDED BY ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25 
KTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA INDICATES CONDUCIVE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, 
AND A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ONLY A SLIGHT 
TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS NEEDED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 
INDICATE THAT 94W WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO CONSOLIDATE, AFTER WHICH 
TIME, THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN UP. 94W CURRENTLY LIES ALONG A 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM TAIWAN TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS, DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL, NORTHWEST-TRACKING CIRCULATIONS 
ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT MAY LEAD TO MORE DIRECT 
IMPACTS TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY 
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE 
EVOLUTION OF THESE SUBSEQUENT CIRCULATIONS, WHICH HAVE NOT YET FORMED. 
THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RELATES TO THE REGION OF THE 
EAST CHINA SEA. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.1N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT 
OBSCURING THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH SHORT, CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 301301 METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED 
WINDS ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ROBUST AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON STEADY 
TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK, WITH GFS PORTRAYING A MORE 
EASTWARD MOTION, WHILE ECENS DEPICTS A TURN NORTHWARD WITH LANDFALL 
QUICKLY FOLLOWING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(2) WITH 21W FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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