WTPN21 PHNC 270430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260430Z AUG 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 107.3W TO 13.9N 113.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 6.0N 109.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY  
590NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCCORO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION ALONG ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT LOW 
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93E 
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND TAKE A GENERAL 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO AGREE ON IT TAKING A 
GENERALLY SIMILAR TRACK AND FOR INVEST 93E TO REACH TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 260430)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280500Z.//
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