WTPN22 PHNC 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270300Z AUG 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 270300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 11.6N 134.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 135.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 
135.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1269NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH 
WESTERLY WINDS FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE 
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR 
LESS), UPPER-LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT 94E WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOMALOUSLY EASTWARD, WHILE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND 
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 107.5W.//
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