WTPN21 PGTW 262000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 167.4E TO 25.8N 166.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 167.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 19.4N 167.4E, IS NOW LOCATED 20.2N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75NM 
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE LLC REMAINS SOMEWHAT 
ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC, WITH WINDS OF 25-30KTS ALONG THE EASTERN 
FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(5-10KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. ENSEMBLE MODELS 
INDICATE ROBUST SUPPORT FOR RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN 
THE SHORT-TERM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272000Z.//
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