WTPN21 PHNC 260430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 105.9W TO 14.6N 110.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 18 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 106.0W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 
109.0W, APPROXIMATELY 744 NM SOUTHEAST OF CLARION, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT  
WITH FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE T
EMPRATURES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93E WILL  
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270430Z.
//
NNNN