ABPW10 PGTW 211100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211100Z-220600ZAUG2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZAUG2026// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210752ZAUG2026// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 21AUG26 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 21AUG26 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 210900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.1N 125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST OF KADENA AIR FORCE BASE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DENSE CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 210135Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 125 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF THE ANALYZED POSITION OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOOSELY DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. A 202335Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND CALMER WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION. ENVIRONMENTAL EXAMINATION REVEALS HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS OUTLINE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM SOONER AND STRONGER THAN GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 809 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 96W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTER, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. A 202350 METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC, ALMOST FRONT-LIKE, WIND FIELD WITH MAXIMUM 30-35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, AND THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W TRANSITING NORTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE WITH TIME. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).// NNNN