WTPN21 PHNC 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191300ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 136.4W TO 11.7N 144.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 141.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4N 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 966NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. A 200621Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 
TO 29C), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS EARLIER AND QUICKER DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEAR TERM. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 191300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
211300Z.//
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