WTPN21 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 155.2E TO 10.2N 153.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 154.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 9.2N 157.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM 
EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
92W AS A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN ASCAT 082257Z 
PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATEDWINDS 
(20-25 KNOTS) WRAPPING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSITING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF 92W INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND 
AGREE WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITHIN A 24 HOUR 
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
190600Z.//
NNNN