WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130552ZAUG26//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130600). PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 22N 138E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 141.5E, THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22N 138E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 
141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING 
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A 140040Z ASCAT-C 
PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOTS WINDS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION, WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE 
MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A CIRCULATION THAT MOVES GENERALLY 
NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW GOOD DEVELOPMENT BUT SHORT-LIVED DURATION, OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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