ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130152ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZAUG2026//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130552ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NANGKA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST OF CHICHI JIMA, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 13AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (PEILOU) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 786 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI 
TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22N 
138E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION. A 130102Z ASCAT-C 
PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOTS WINDS AROUND THE BULK OF THE CIRCULATION, 
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE MONSOONAL 
SOUTHWESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A CIRCULATION THAT MOVES 
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP  INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE RAPID ATTAINMENT, BUT SHORT-LIVED 
DURATION, OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 130600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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