WTPN23 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112200ZAUG26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 131.0W TO 19.1N 133.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 122130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 131.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 129.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.0W APPROXIMATELY 1376 NM EAST 
OF HILO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
POORLY-DEFINED AND BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS BEING MASKED BY DEEP, 
FLARING CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 122142Z ASCAT (METOP-C) IMAGE DEPICTS 
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH 15-25KT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT 99E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99E WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. (WTPN23 PHNC 112200)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
132200Z.//
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