WTPN23 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 128.7W TO 19.6N 133.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 129.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) LOCATED AT 15.9N 129.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 865 NM WEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ADDITIONAL FRAGMENTED BAND
TO THE NORTH. A 111839Z ASCAT-B REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99E WILL 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
122200Z.
//
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