ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090152ZAUG2026//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090153ZAUG2026//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090552ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF D IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 32.4N 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 589 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 09AUG26 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
27.8N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 09AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KUJIRA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
35 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN32 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.6N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED BY 
UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH. A PARTIAL 
082301Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK 
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL 
FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE. MAXIMUM WINDS IN 
THE ASCAT IMAGERY ARE 20-25 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BRIEFLY DEVELOP 98W INTO A WEAK TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION THAT GENERALLY TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC GYRE PATTERN. FOR ENSEMBLE MODELS, 
ECENS INDICATES A HIGHER INTENSITY OF 98W AS OPPOSED TO GEFS 
MAINTAINING A LOWER CONFIDENCE AND INTENSITY. BOTH HOWEVER, AGREE 
UPON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK OF 98W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 090600) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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