ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080152ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 32.4N 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 854 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 08AUG26 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
27.0N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 13W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.1N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
EASTERN END OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM TYPHOON 13W, NEAR 
OR IN A COL-REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29 TO 30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ALL SHOW CONTINUED STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 13W AS IT GETS PULLED 
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE SET UP OVER 
THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.9N 108.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM 
EAST OF BACH LONGVI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR DATA DEPICTS THE ASSOCIATED 
CIRCULATION MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN HAINAN ISLAND, WHICH WILL 
HINDER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INDEPENDENT ON THE CURRENT 
POSITION OVER LAND, CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), NEARBY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DO NOT 
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF 97W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS REMNANTS 
TRACK EASTWARD OVER HAINAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 
147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOOSELY 
DEFINED WAVE FEATURE, GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION, 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD, EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALL 
THE WAY BACK TO TY 12W IN THE EAST CHINA SEA AND MARKS THE SOUTHERN 
FLANK OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT FULLY DEVELOP 98W AS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT DO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW-PRESSURE AREA 
THAT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE TRACK OF TS 14W ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF 
THE CYCLONIC GYRE PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT MORE SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK OF 98W OVER THE NEXT 
36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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