ABPW10 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041400Z-050600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040651ZAUG2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04AUG26 0600Z, TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
25.3N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE 
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.7N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VIGAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
ALONG THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF LUZON THAT FEATURES CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. STRONG 
WESTSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CLEARLY SEEN FLOWING INTO WESTERN LUZON, 
ROUGHLY FROM LINGAYEN GULF SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AS THE SYSTEM 
IS POSITIONED WITHIN A POCKET OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS IS 
THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL CURRENTLY DEPICTING CONSOLIDATION OF 94W 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHOWING THE WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF LINGAYEN 
GULF QUICKLY TURNING NORTHWARD DUE TO TERRAIN FORCING, AND WRAPPING 
INTO THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CENTER. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 
CENTER CLOSER TO SHORE AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE THE CIRCULATION OR 
WRAP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE EAST SIDE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO 
LAND. ENSEMBLE MODELS BOTH AGREE ON THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BACK OVER LUZON AFTER 
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040700) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N 
166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND VERY ELONGATED REGION OF 
TROUGHING WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS (LLC) POSITIONED IN 
THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION, IN THE 
VICINITY OF WAKE ISLAND. A PARTIAL 040952Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED SHARP 
CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND BUT DID CAPTURE THE 
ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE BROAD ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TC 
DEVELOPMENT IS SMALL, AS GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE CIRCULATION MOVING 
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL 
SUPPORT THE TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 
ABOUT 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 96W 
INTO A BROAD, BRIEFLY TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 96W AND FOR 
IT TO TAKE A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW 
AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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