ABPW10 PGTW 040700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/040700Z-050700ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040651ZAUG2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04AUG26 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
25.1N 143.2E, APPROXIMATELY 836 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE 
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.7N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 63 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF VIGAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG 
THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF LUZON THAT FEATURES CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 
THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. STRONG WEST- 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CLEARLY SEEN FLOWING INTO WESTERN LUZON, ROUGHLY 
FROM LINGAYEN GULF SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AS THE SYSTEM 
IS POSITIONED WITHIN A POCKET OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS IS 
THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL CURRENTLY DEPICTING CONSOLIDATION OF 94W 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHOWING THE WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF LINGAYEN 
GULF QUICKLY TURNING NORTHWARD DUE TO TERRAIN FORCING, AND WRAPPING 
INTO THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CENTER. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 
CENTER CLOSER TO SHORE AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE THE CIRCULATION OR 
WRAP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE EAST SIDE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO 
LAND. ENSEMBLE MODELS BOTH AGREE ON THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BACK OVER LUZON AFTER 
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 040700) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO  
HIGH.//
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