WTPN21 PGTW 031430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021930ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 
021930)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 021930). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.4E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
APARRI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT TRACKED UNDER DEEP 
CONVECTION AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL IN LUZON. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+ 
KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AS WELL AS 
ELEVATED GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH CAUSED BY INFLOW INTO TYPHOON 12W 
(DOLPHIN) AND ELEVEATED GRADIENT FLOW TO THE WEST FROM FUNNELING 
EFFECTS IN THE LUZON STRAIT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 
94W IS PAST ITS PEAK AND WILL WEAKEN UNTIL BEING FULLY ABSORBED BY 
TYPHOON 12W WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF THE SYSTEM MOMENTARILY REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE CRITERIA IF IT 
EMERGES OVER WATER ON THE WEST COAST OF LUZON. THEREFORE, THE 
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW .//
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