WTPN21 PGTW 021930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N 123.2E TO 17.7N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 123.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 124.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 62 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED SOUTHWEST 
OF A FULLY EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 021240Z 
METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED 20-25 
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE 
AREA INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND DRY AIR, OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE WOULD NECESSITATE INITIATION OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC DATA AGREES THAT THE 
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM 
IS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE ECENS AND DEEPMIND ENSEMBLES CONCUR ON A 
SLOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION NEAR SOUTHERN LUZON AND POSSIBLE 
INTERACTION WITH TY 12W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
031930Z.//
NNNN