WTPN22 PHNC 260700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 177.0W TO 12.3N 174.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 177.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92C) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 
177.5S, APPROXIMATELY 542NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), DEPICTS A COMPACT, DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 260414Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION 
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
AGREE ON THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OF 92C OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INVEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL 
DATELINE AT APPROXIMATELY 271800Z, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270700Z.//
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