WTPN21 PHNC 230800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 97.9W TO 8.6N 104.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 18 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 98.2W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 
98.2W, APPROXIMATELY 545NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF CONVECTION WITH DISTINCT FORMATIVE BANDING. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240800Z.
//
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