ABPW10 PGTW 222030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222030Z-230600ZJUL2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222021ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 133.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) IS DISPLACED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THE PRESENCE OF 
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). A 221634Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
IMAGE REVEALS A LOOSELY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND A 221307Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS LOCATED 40-60 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS 
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS DECREASING, AND THE 
SYSTEM, NOW ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IS SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 222030) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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