WTPS21 PGTW 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.4S 161.8E TO 11.2S 165.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.5S 161.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 
4.8S 161.5E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
200102Z OSCAT-3 IMAGE REVEALS SURFACE WINDS OF 30-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ATTENUATED BY RAIN. THE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 
36 HOURS DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C), LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AFTER 36 HOURS, 
THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY 
STRONG SHEAR AND ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN 
THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210400Z.//
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