WTPN21 PHNC 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 104.9W TO 11.4N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071712Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 105.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 
105.2W, APPROXIMATELY 480.6NM SW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC 
ROTATION CONCEALED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY GOOD 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
97E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181300Z.
//
NNNN