ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.6N 152.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 46.6 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING 
CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 170441Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE 
POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, 
AND THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT SAME NOTION. WILE 
THE CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT AND 
DEFINED LLCC WILL SERVE TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
30.8N 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 289. NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 91W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE 
EAST-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD (NORTHEASTWARD) OUTFLOW, AND BORDERLINE 
(24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 
INVEST 91W WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD THAT EXPANDS AND ELONGATES 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TRANSITING POLEWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN 
THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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