ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUL2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.6N 
152.6E, APPROXIMATELY 320NM SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 160310Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. 
FURTHERMORE, A 152305Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE POORLY 
ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-
10 KNOT) VWS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
AGREE WITH THE SAME NOTION. WHILE THE CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL 
FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT AND DEFINED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL 
SERVE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
30.8N 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.98N 150.85E, APPROXIMATELY  
270.8NM EAST OF IWO TO. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 91W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE 
EAST-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD (NORTHEASTWARD) OUTFLOW, AND BORDERLINE 
(24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 
INVEST 91W WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD THAT EXPANDS AND ELONGATES 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TRANSITING POLEWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN 
THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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