WTPN21 PHNC 141400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 131400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 106.9W TO 16.3N 111.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 107.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 
107.1W, APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP 
FLARING CONVECTION WITH MINOR FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 140907Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES THE 
STRONGEST 25-30KT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
96E WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 131400).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
151400Z.//
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