WTPN21 PHNC 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.7N 154.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 32 TO 38 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 154.9W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 
154.9W, APPROXIMATELY 462 NM EAST NORTH-EAST OF PALMYRA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING 
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS DEPICT 91C WILL HAVE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 
IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150200Z.//
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