ABPW10 PGTW 132030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/132030Z-140600ZJUL2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130321ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 145.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON 
THE WESTERN FLANK. A 130006Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND 
POCKETS OF 20KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM 
ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNING 
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 09W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
34.3N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS 
HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAK, BROAD 
ROTATION MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
THE QINGDAO PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE YELLOW SEA; THE REMNANTS OF 
09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE 
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT PASSES OVER 
THE NORTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA 
INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM 
LIES UNDER A 500MB LOW-HEIGHT CENTER AND STACKS BACK TO A STRONG 200MB 
TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WHICH IS INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SMALL REGION OF SHALLOW CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COOL (22-25 
C), PROVIDING MINIMAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 09W WILL MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WHILE MAINTAINING A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN