WTPN21 PHNC 131400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 100.6W TO 14.9N 109.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 101.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 
101.0W, APPROXIMATELY 285NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING THAT IS SHEARING TO THE WEST. A 131321Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
WITH 20-25KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96E WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
141400Z.
//
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