ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 120600Z-130600ZJUL2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11JUL26 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 28.7N 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 112100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM.
          (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.2N 173.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 145.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 281 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION 
BUT DO NOT SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 72 HOURS. ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOW AN APPRECIABLE SIGNAL OF MEMBERS 
DEPICTING CYCLOGENESIS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WITHIN 
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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