WTPN21 PHNC 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291921ZJUN26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21PHNC301930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 126.4W TO 18.3N 127.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 126.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 123.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 126.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1287 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE 95E 
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 291390).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011930Z.
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