WTPN21 PGTW 301300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 164.7E TO 11.0N 161.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 164.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3N 165.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING WITHIN AN 
ELONGATED TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
DEPICT 95W GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSITS 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011300Z.//
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