ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZJUN2026-010600ZJUL2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.1N 167.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 95W GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING 
AS 95W SLOWLY TRANSITS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.9N 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT; HOWEVER, ONGOING LAND INTERACTION OVER THE PHILIPPINES REMAINS 
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS 96W TRANSITS 
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO 
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER AND INTENSIFY. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH DEPICTS RAPID 
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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