WTPN21 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 147.9E TO 16.0N 143.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENTLY BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS 
REVEALED THAT 94W WAS COMPRISED OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL ROTATION, HOWEVER, 
RECENTLY, THE DISTURBANCE HAS FORMED A WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE 
UPPER LEVELS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MARIANAS 
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
231100Z.//
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