WTPN21 PGTW 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 146.1E TO 13.4N 140.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061812Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 146.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0N 147.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES 
AND INTENSIFIES WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191400Z.//
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