ABPW10 PGTW 161300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161300Z-170600ZJUN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2N 161.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 597 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL STATION GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 92W WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 161002Z 
ASCAT METOP-C PASS SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BUT 
THE PASS MISSED THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, WHERE THE 
WEAKEST WRAPPING HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS OR IF 92W 
REMAINS A WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LIMITED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN 
THE NEAR-TERM, BUT ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 171.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 176.7E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION 
SITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
COOL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, SOUTH OF FIJI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 96P IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN INCOMING 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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