ABPW10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150200Z-150600ZJUN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2N 
161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1032 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH PERSISTENT, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION POLEWARD OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED 
POLEWARD AND SOME EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LARGELY SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS 92W APPROACHES THE MARIANA ISLANDS. 
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THAT FROM ECMWF, BOTH 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WAVE-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTING WITH MINIMAL 
CONSOLIDATION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.8S 
170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY  
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141401Z AMSR2 
GW1 89 GHZ PASS DEPICTS A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH A POORLY DEFINED, 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH 
AND LINEARLY DISTRIBUTED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. A 141230Z 
OSCAT PASS DEPICTS A LARGE SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE OF 96P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C) OFFSET BY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. 96P IS BECOMING MORE 
DEEPLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INTERACTING WITH 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ENTERING A REGION OF STRONGER TEMPERATURE 
GRADIENT WITH MODEST THERMAL ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN SIDE 
OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING 
BAROCLINICITY AND SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96P DISSOLVING INTO A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS BOTH 
SHOW 96P TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TOWARDS SUB 26 DEGREE 
CELSIUS WATERS, SO TROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNLIKELY. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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