WTPN21 PHNC 060230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 104.3W TO 14.3N 100.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 104.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 
104.2W, APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO,MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, WHICH DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION 
FORMING LATER THAN OTHER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ENSEMBLE MODELS 
AGREE ON A GRADUAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A GENERALLY 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070230Z.//
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