WTPN21 PHNC 020100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 125.6W TO 10.8N 125.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 125.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 
125.5W, APPROXIMATELY 867NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION, ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 
29-30C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10KTS, AND MODERATE WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALL GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
030100Z.//
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