ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZMAY2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261451ZMAY2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3N 138.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY. THE LLCC REMAINS ILL-DEFINED, AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY 
AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A MISALIGNED VORTEX, WHICH IS 
INHIBITING MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 
25 KTS, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, AND THE 25KT WINDS 
ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO A MORE LINEAR FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
SHOW 99W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO UNDERGO 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 26 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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