ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260001Z 
ASCAT PASS SHOW AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING WITH BROAD TURNING. THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ASSESSED TO BE POSITIONED IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN END OF THE TROUGH. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS 
MEASURED AT 150NM, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
INITIAL POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE 
IS THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON 99W TRACKING GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE 
AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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