ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 250600Z-260600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 
141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 242153Z F16 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGERY, AND 
A 242352Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION, WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 99W IS IN A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 
PARTICULARLY IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH OVERALL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC WILL 
LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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