ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 81.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 82.5E, APPROXIMATELY 626 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A RELATIVELY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
A 131324Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MINOR FORMATIVE BANDING 
ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AS WELL AS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DISPLACED 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, NAVGEM 
IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW CRITERIA AND AGREE 
ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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